Canada projects a record-high proportion of immigrants in 2041
Furthering a trend that began in the early 1990s, immigration is projected to remain the main driver of population growth over the coming decades.
Statistics Canada’s Centre for Demography released a new set of detailed demographic projections for 2041 on immigration and diversity in Canada. The new projections reflect the targets of the 2022–2024 Immigration Levels Plan. Moreover, the projections reflect the most recent demographic developments, including those related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to the reference scenario, the Canadian population would reach 47.7 million in 2041. Of those 47.7 million, 25.0 million of them would be immigrants or children of immigrants born in Canada. This accounts for 52.4% of the total population.
A record-high proportion of immigrants in the Canadian population in 2041
Statistics Canada projects that in 2041, the proportion of immigrants in the Canadian population could reach from 29.1% to 34.0%. This would be a record-high level since the 1867 Canadian Confederation.
Further, it is anticipated that, by 2041, “immigrants and their Canadian-born children” could account for 52.4% of the country’s total population based on the reference scenario used by StatsCan. This would be an increase of 12.4% from 2016 when Canada’s population came in at 14.4 million and the same group made up 40% of that total.
In 2041, 1 in 4 Canadians will be born in Asia or Africa
Considering that population growth in the coming decades will depend primarily on international immigration, Statistics Canada projected that the Canadian population will include 9.9 million to 13.9 million people born in Asia or Africa. These peoples alone could account for 23.1% to 26.9% of the total Canadian population in 2041, up from 13.5% in 2016.
It is important to mention that the number of permanent resident arrivals in Canada is dominated by Indian citizens. There were nearly 127,900 Indians who became Canadian permanent residents in 2021. Meanwhile, Chinese citizens represented the second-highest number of people with permanent resident status in Canada. In addition, the number of study permit holders is also dominated by Indian and Chinese citizens.
Immigrants would live mainly in Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver
In 2016, the immigrant population was concentrated in Canada’s largest cities. By 2041, the vast majority of the immigrant population would continue to live in a Census Metropolitan Area, said Statistics Canada. Meanwhile, Toronto, Montréal, and Vancouver would remain the three primary areas of residence of immigrants.
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The contrast between the country’s urban and rural regions will add to some of the current challenges arising from their specific demographic dynamic:
- pressures on the housing market,
- the development of urban infrastructure,
- the loss of the demographic weight of the country’s rural regions.
These projections provide relevant information about substantial changes that are transforming the social fabric of Canadian communities. Moreover, they show that this relative increase in the number of Canadians with diverse backgrounds and cultural influences is expected to continue over time.
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